THREAT ANALYSIS

This is a companion to my "Survival Essentials" thread. We've all heard "let the mission drive / select the gear". Well, we have to identify the mission first. Obviously, "surviving" is the objective but to increase our chances of doing so requires that we consider WHAT we are trying to survive. Completing this task will enable us to develop strategies; plans; and gear more refined that an AR15 and BOB.


I'd like to identify the threats we face, and what we can do to help mitigate their effects on us.

Gary, as you AND we all have stated many times the threats are/can be varied and many. They CAN consist of:

1. Global Thermal Nuclear War (think about the Movie War Games).
2. EMP (Electrical Magnetic Pulse) (Hi altitude nuclear Explosion frying integrated circuits so that virtually NOTHING will work.
3. An Attack on our electrical infrastructure
4. An attack on our fuel, coal, gasoline, Natural Gas, along with wind and solar production facilities and distribution systems.
5. An attack on our food distribution system.
6. Mass simultaneous terrorist acts.
7. An attack on our Rail (Train) system

I am sure there are others but these come to mind. a disruption to any one SINGLE of these "Systems" would lead many people into mass panic mode, reverting to the Rule of the jungle where only the strongest survive.

Who's next?

In my NON INFORMED opinion, the preparedness for each one of these is the same TO A POINT.

1. Have foodstuffs on hand and a way to prepare them.
2. Have potable water, in quantity and a way to purify it or more.
3. Have a way to procure or have your own portable shelter to include bedding of some sort.
4. Remaining unseen as much as possible, unless you want to be seen.
5. A means of DEFENSE if you cannot remain "Hidden".

One of the major factors in a threat assessment has to be the duration of the event.

Assuming a threat is of relatively short duration (storm, flood, earthquake), and localized, the solutions would also be minor.
Some of Skunk's listed threats, like #3/4/5/6/7 I think would also fall into this category. You could simply stay at home, surviving on your stored stock of food and water, and wait it out or move out of the afflicted area until repairs are completed. The main governmental infrastructures would still be intact and able to respond in a relatively short time.

Now if the duration of the threat was long term and/or world altering, like Skunk’s #1/2, then the solution(s) would be much more difficult. I would include a worldwide economic meltdown, major pandemic outbreak, massive solar flares (Skunk’s #2) or a significant asteroid impact (see 99942 Apophis) in this threat duration category too. Any of the threats in this category couldn’t be solved in a short time span because the governmental infrastructure would be most likely have been crippled along with all other “normal” commercial businesses. Any remaining governmental resources would be funneled into support for the societal elite and not the everyday man/woman/child.

The first major die-off phase (within the first year of the event(s)), due to riots/gangs, starvation, exposure, lack of meds (I’ll be in this group), and disease, should be those who truly prepared for a major catastrophe and those that are able to control local resources by force. Those survivors of the first die-off that haven’t banded together and formed armed farming communities would form nomadic bands of scavengers as their local resources dwindle to nothing. The successful individual would be a rarity in this phase of survival.
The second major die-off phase (year 1-5) would be those scavengers that are competing for smaller and smaller bits of leftover pre-event resources. As the scavengers gradually die off becoming less and less of a threat, the farming communities would expand and be able to support a larger population.

By this time any ammunition and firearms that have survived would be too precious to be used for normal trade. Food items and personal skills would become the main local barter items. Seeds would be highly valued and used for bartering over a distance along with books and crafted items/tools.

To me, the most highly prized item in any threat scenario is health, knowledge and practical skill.

Way to go Arch! Are you SURE you haven't written any books?

I guess I kinda side tracked your thread from the git go. I was concerned with outlining some possible threats and NOT analyzing what it would take to survive them.

Randy,
I've done a little ghost writing and contributing, but no books yet. You didn't derail my thread. Your post was the purpose...identify potential threats and discuss what you're doing to mitigate their effect on you.

Randy,
Virtually every threat you identified is man-made and an act of terrorism. This illustrates you need to broaden your focus to more localized and also natural hazards.

For example: Based upon your location I would be most worried about an earthquake.

This thread has withered on the vine. I'd like to see other people discuss what they're preparing to survive...and how they plan to do so. Every thread on the Outdoor side of the forum can't be from one or two sources...others need to contribute.

I enjoy the thread although I'm not posting. I was just thinking about it last week actually- came to the conclusion that after 7 years of inpatient psych and the prisons, I was a bit fatigued from spending so much time on "yellow alert."

I like the basic red, yellow and green alert for monitoring my situation.

I've been looking at some of my preparation stores recently and find myself considering the fundamentals more. One of my next buys will be a filtration device. Don't have potable water, ya don't have much!

I am lucky as that the area in which I live is no flood or riot prone. There are all the social issues of living on the fringe of a large metropolitan location however. None will (given most reasonable circumstances require a bug out. Fire would be the most prolific natural threat to us and (other than the sensible preparations around the house and yard) there is not much I can do for that other than knowing when to stand and fight and when to run. It is a remote possibility.

We do get smashed December to Feb/March by violent storms and these have been known to leave the power out for days. That is an easy manage for me (I actually enjoy it ).

My work is all about risk and situation management and I am well able to apply these principles across my life as well (and yes that means taking risk but with the full knowledge of the possible consequences).

A major social event here on the East Coast would have a significant buildup that would be plain to an observer, it would also have its roots in an area well away from me (it an be mobile but I live in an area likely to be well down the order). My neighbours are good people and it would take a significant and unprecedented event to see them turn on each other.

Gary, you are correct. Living on the New Madrid Fault, if/when it lets go will be a MAJOR disaster for a large area. We are prepared to "Do Without" for quite a while with a loss of power. As long as the house is sound. IF the house goes, it will be more difficult but not Insurmountable.

I know a guy on a hill that has about a 4 acre pond...

Countries banding together (sort of) against ISIS, this COULD lead to a war larger than just restricted to the presently involved area of the middle east. HOW will it impact the rest of the world, is a question that needs to be asked.

Something I consider a very real concern is a severe and deadly flu. I used to do HIV work and hang out with infectious disease docs. You ask them of the likelihood of a repeat of the 1918 flu pandemic and they say "it's a question of when, not if."

The Matt Damon movie "Contagion" gave a good flavor of some of the problems that will arise.

This is what drives my food storage. I figure I have about 3 weeks of regular food and another 2,3 months of long term food stored. Figure it will give us a fighting chance.

Our biggest threats around here are tornadoes and ice storms. We prepare for them by having food, water, back-up heat sources, and emergency lighting.
We are not as prone to damage from an earthquake on the New Madrid fault line like Randy, and are high enough to not be concerned with flooding. Other concerns like social unrest or an expanded war keep us aware but not as concerned. A small solar array will provide electricity to get us by, and we have several radios with short-wave capability to stay informed. We also have the "means" to protect ourselves in the event of other people preying on those who are prepared.

How much will the solar power in the house Tom?

I have enough wattage for lights, tv, computer, and short runs of the refrigerator/freezer. I keep 6 x 100# and 6 x 20# bottles of extra propane on hand, and have three generators, one being an inverter type. 300# of charcoal for grills, as well as many 1# bottles. I have a boxwood stood for wood fires if an absolute necessity, and over a cord of cut firewood as well. Oh, 75 gallons of gas for the generators too.

Tom,
You have an excellent energy, food preparation, and heating plan.

I guess the whole "Adapt and overcome" thing stuck!

Marines: be one or wish you were!

Well I wasn't one so...

Remember Belgium was on lock down for about four days, what if it started the day before your shopping day and you only had one days worth of food left?

A lot of people have the "3 days of food and water" for Earthquake preparedness. A minimum should be one week and food that doesn't need to be heated up.

MM

My biggest worry living where I do is heat it has already been well into the teens here and will go much lower soon. I have an old wood stove and enough pipe to install if the power grid fails and puts the furnace out of commission. Luckily the cold will make food storage easy until spring.

Oh and I do have a ready supply of fire wood that I keep and use for the fire pit in the good times.