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bug out short, medium, long term #252298 11/24/08 05:07 PM
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DotD Offline OP
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I've been reading on a few forums and talking with a few like minded friends
about the prospects of bugging out or going through a forced relocation in times
of emergency.

With this in mind, I've adopted a "time duration" method in order to categorize
possible emergency scenarios in my area. I'm sure that there are many other
methods of categorization available, but being a novice to this, I went for the
process that my mind could most easily grasp. I'm hoping that I can develop a
loosely adaptable plan of response to each category.
Sort of a novice Emergency / Disaster Plan Prep.

I've listed three categories as a start.
  • Short
  • Medium
  • Long term or No Return

I'd be interested in seeing how other forum members classify emergency situations.
What types of emergency situations would you identify that are relevant to
your situation, and how would you classify them?


I have placed a few examples that my friends and I have identified for our
particular area (Interior of British Columbia), into the categories that I
think they would go into.

Short term emergency:
  • Wildfires*
  • Avalanche
  • Flood

Medium term emergency:
  • Oil refinery explosion
  • Pipeline destruction and environmental contamination by leaking fossil fuels

Long term or no return emergency:
  • Major earthquake
  • Volcanic eruption (ie: Mt. St. Helens)


*Wildfires could be put into any of the categories as there is the immediate
component of the fire itself, followed by the medium term problems of insurance
and rebuilding, or the long term problem that some found when their place of
employment went up in flames and the company didn't rebuild. This forced the
employees to relocate for work.

For all interested, please look over what I've presented and see if you would do
it differently. Feel free to make adjustments to the short list I've put up if
you have different view points about how it should be done.
If you've made emergency prep plans for you (if single) and your family (if not
single), I'd be interested in seeing how you did it.

The only thing that I ask, if you modify my layout, is that you provide a short
explanation for your choices.


Cheers
DotD

Last edited by DotD; 11/24/08 07:16 PM.
Re: bug out short, medium, long term [Re: DotD] #252299 11/25/08 12:06 AM
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KENKEN Offline
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very informative post there DotD



for me it would be something like this:

class 1

This is what I call a "quickie" it shouldn't last more than a few days. relocating will be my last option on this case. I have everything that I need to last thru it at home. 1 mile or less? 1 to 10 lost of life.


class 2

lasting from a few days to a few weeks. This could be a city-wide crisis. 5 to 10miles? 5 to 100 lost of life? I do not want to relocate under this class either due to the fact that again, I should have everything that I need here at home. The 1992 LA riot belong under this class.

class 3

This is it! In this class you are not just being armed. You are probably shooting actively either at looters or zombies. This version of SHTF can last for months if not years. Could be a nation-wide crisis where the local police will probably be overwhelmed by what is going on. National Guard will probably be everywhere. You will need a good amount of ammo and enough firearms to arm EVERYONE in the family.

There will be nobody to protect you/your family/close friends. You will need to have enough food, water, everyday needs, guns & ammo to last for at least a few months. And enough people that you can trust so you can assemble a group of different individuals. I would have to relocate to my family's house since we will definitely want to join forces. Grow your own plants/vegetables/whatever the items list above should all be under one location for easy distribution.




what you might really do depends heavily on the situation. One type OF SHTF can be different than another. Your action should be according to what is happening around you. I'm willing to hear what other people have to say also, since my version of it isn't really complete...

Last edited by KENKEN; 11/25/08 12:14 AM.

JYD #84 This is my rifle, and that is my SHTF Busse knife.
Re: bug out short, medium, long term [Re: KENKEN] #252300 11/25/08 04:52 PM
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DotD Offline OP
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KENKEN,

Some good ideas you've got there.
I agree that what you do does depend heavily on the situation. In an emergency
situation, I think you are going to have to react to what is in your immediate
area first and foremost.
Hunkering down and trying to ride it out is a good option, but what happens if you
can't stay put, say like an earthquake or a wildfire?
If a person is forced to become mobile, an evacuation plan is needed. A main
escape route needs to be chosen with an alternate route if needed and possibly
even a third if necessary?

I've gotten a forestry map for the area that I live in, and have a few routes
chosen should I need to leave in a hurry and find that the main roads are blocked.
As well, my vehicle is a 4X4 so if I need to go cross country, I'm not limited
to the road system.
One thing that my family doesn't have is a rendezvous point for meeting up in
an emergency. Most would think that having a cell phone would negate that
part of a plan, but I would think that in something like a wildfire, earthquake
or tsunami, that cell sites would either be destroyed or the system would be
overwhelmed, and not really dependable.
Thats something that I'm going to have to work on.

Cheers
DotD


Dawgs travel in packs; Don't mess with the pack JYD#62 Dave
Re: bug out short, medium, long term [Re: DotD] #252301 11/25/08 05:37 PM
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KENKEN Offline
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Relocating would be the last option for most of us i would think. When you relocate you are basically giving up everything you left behind. I would expect cell phone to cease function during scuh crisis (It did during 9/11 and the New England black out)

What to bring and what not to bring can be another big issue depending on the type of crisis. You need to make up your mind on what to bring after you decide to leave your "castle/home" Again there should be enough Food, water, medical supplies, firarms, ammo in the car to last for awhile. There will not be any room for stuff like make-up or 10 different handbags for the women. Come up with a plan to live, not to enter a Beauty contest.

rendezvous point for family members/close friend is a great idea. But how long do you wait? what kind of danger might be around the rendezvous point while you wait there for them? During the time of crisis you almost ways get looters/robbers/or basically bad guys trying to get something out of the whole situation. I would perfer the meet up point to be far out of major highway/human traffic.

At least one or two people should be awake when the rest of the group get some sleep. Too many things can happen when the entire group goes to sleep.

The above are just some random ideas that I have. There are actually different books you can get for such subject.


JYD #84 This is my rifle, and that is my SHTF Busse knife.
Re: bug out short, medium, long term [Re: KENKEN] #252302 11/25/08 08:15 PM
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DotD Offline OP
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I guess that I'm a bit fixated on bugging out.
The reason for this dates back about 5 years. Back then, both the town I live
in (Kamloops 90,000 people) and a neighboring town (Kelowna over 100,000 people)
were both threatened during a major forest fire outbreak.
Two smaller communities north of us were burnt out.
Staying put was not an option. You left voluntarily or the police came in and
took you out.

Fire is a very real danger here. Every summer, there are grass fires within the
city limits somewhere. Our city and provincial firefighters really earn their
pay, and are among the best in the world at what they do.
With all of the pine beetle kill in our forests over the last couple of years,
it's no longer a question of "if", but rather "when" the fire is going to happen.


Quote

What to bring and what not to bring can be another big issue depending on the type of crisis.
Again there should be enough Food, water, medical supplies, firarms, ammo in the car to last for awhile.
Food, water, medical supplies, clothing, ability to cook, ability to protect
self and family, cash money (banking systems might be down, so plastic wouldn't
be workable),


Quote

rendezvous point for family members/close friend is a great idea.
I work about 20 minutes from home, and have 4 routes that I can take to get home
if need be, so most likely, the rendezvous would be my home.

Quote

But how long do you wait? what kind of danger might be around the rendezvous point while you wait there for them? During the time of crisis you almost ways get looters/robbers/or basically bad guys trying to get something out of the whole situation. I would perfer the meet up point to be far out of major highway/human traffic.
Our city is a smaller city than Vancouver, Seattle or L.A., and I think that the
mindset is far different. During the major fires, there were no instances of
people being taken advantage of, looting, robbery or other things of that nature.
There was hardly any price gouging that you usually see from unethical merchants
trying to take advantage of a situation. I can only recall one such incident,
and the public outrage was so great that the guy relented.

I'm going to have to think hard about a rendezvous point.

Thanks for the input.
DotD


Dawgs travel in packs; Don't mess with the pack JYD#62 Dave
Re: bug out short, medium, long term [Re: DotD] #252303 11/26/08 01:40 PM
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KENKEN Offline
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hmmm...Have you thought about getting a fire suit/jacket since fire seems to be your main concern? something that firefighters wear? It's a good idea if fire happens all over where you live.


JYD #84 This is my rifle, and that is my SHTF Busse knife.
Re: bug out short, medium, long term [Re: KENKEN] #252304 11/26/08 03:03 PM
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DotD Offline OP
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Good thought.
If I lived in an apartment building or condo complex, I'd definitely think about
that. Along with an oxygen mask, these would be a priority.
Where we are, we'll be able to see it coming, and will have time to bug out,
although there was one particular blaze 5 years ago, that took out an entire
mountain side in about 7 minutes.
It was very dry here, about 105 degrees, and the mountain side was dry grass and
pine trees. Lots of tinder on the forest floor so it went like a rocket.

Keep the thoughts coming. You are giving me lots of fuel for thought <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/thumbup.gif" alt="" />


Quote
hmmm...Have you thought about getting a fire suit/jacket since fire seems to be your main concern? something that firefighters wear? It's a good idea if fire happens all over where you live.


Dawgs travel in packs; Don't mess with the pack JYD#62 Dave

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