I believe it's the US military leaving the sandbox and not sucking most of the available ammo to shoot at bad guys.
I don't think that will have an impact. The civilian market doesn't compete much. With the military since the rounds are different. 22 ammo is hard to find and I can't remember the last time I fired a 22 on duty.
I believe the ammo shortage is due to panic buying. If we all stopped buying every round we see ...