i had to think some and i can't definitively answer this but after a little thought i said no. this mess is all wall street, and though the effects of wall street can be felt far and wide, the truth is that companies that are dependent on their stock price, the pro cyclical entities, are doing the most suffering.

well they should, it's their fault. non-cyclical, publicly held businesses and private businesses (even investment firms) are doing quite well in terms of earnings ratios. they don't have to worry about investor confidence to build equity. of publicly held companies, those with attractive debt to equity ratios are also looking good long term and generally healthy in the earnings department. their stock prices are suffering, but that's not critical to them as a going concern.

as for the question in the original post, take the first and second derivatives of the three month moving average of the various domestic stock indices to see if we've heat the trough or headed for a waterfall.

now that i've denied the bleak future, i'm gonna run to amazon and order all those SHTF books.