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Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression? [Re: imaginefj] #269834 03/16/09 02:27 PM
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Jim Offline
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Depression/Recession definitions aren't fixed to benchmarks. Many would call a depression a period where GDP falls by 10% or more; by that definition, we aren't there (yet). Another definition is that a depression is a period of "recession that lasts longer and has a larger decline in business activity." The average recession lasts about a year, this decline (at least in the stock market) has been going for about 1.5 years.

My retirement plan is down by just over 60% since 10/31/07 -- oddly enough, the government claims that GDP actually increased during much of that time, so if we were actually in a period of continued economic growth, why were all my personal benchmarks down by so much? The Fed denied we were even in a recession until late 2008 -- I don't want to sound like a conspiracy nut, but I believe creative accounting isn't limited to companies -- politicians don't have to accept blame for the economy as long as the numbers can be manipulated to say it's fine. If they can just hang a big enough "Mission Accomplished" sign, maybe we'll believe that this little problem is all over.

I'm not saying that I'd prefer to live in a different country, but I am saying that there appears to be a profound lack of accountability in both the public and private sector, as well as an ongoing attempt to hide the scope of the problem.


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Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression [Re: bodhi_] #269835 03/16/09 02:39 PM
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I can recall what my parents told me about not having enough food on the table, eating flour soup (my father still shudders when one mentions it). Thats a depression.
If you are wondering if you should postpone the purchase of the next car, now thats a recession.

My dad was raised in the depression as well. Luckily, they were on a farm,
and had the ability to have a garden and the ability to snag venison for meat.
He often told me about the guys who would come round for meals. Grandma was
Irish from the old country, and new what it was like to go hungry, so she
always fed them what she could and they helped out with chores and such.
There wasn't much, but they made do.
You mentioned that your dad cringed at the mention of "flour" soup.
For my dad, it was "potato" soup.

Did a google search for U.S. job loss and found this report from
your Department of Labor
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Quote


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: FEBRUARY 2009

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to fall sharply in February (-651,000),
and the unemployment rate rose from 7.6 to 8.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employ-
ment has declined by 2.6 million in the past 4 months. In February, job
losses were large and widespread across nearly all major industry sectors.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons increased by 851,000 to 12.5 million in
February, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.1 percent. Over the past 12
months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by about 5.0 million,
and the unemployment rate has risen by 3.3 percentage points.


Sad news, but it isn't just a U.S. problem though.
This same thing is happening all around the world.
And that is really scary because when the momentum starts to develop,
it will be very difficult to stop.

I really, really hope that I'm wrong and that it's only a bad recession,
but I'm preparing for the worst case scenario first.

the $3.95 ($0.02 adjusted for inflation, currency exchange and taxes) is
because I live in Canada. Everything is more expensive here... <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />


Dawgs travel in packs; Don't mess with the pack JYD#62 Dave
Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression [Re: Jim] #269836 03/16/09 02:42 PM
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GDP is measured against the rest of the world. it can grow while our economy crumbles. the rest of the world just has to fall further than we do.


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Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression? [Re: Private Klink] #269837 03/16/09 02:53 PM
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Don't worry - Prezbo will take care of you! <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/barf.gif" alt="" /> Did you see how poorly he treated the British P.M. when he was here? Nothing like insulting the leader of our strongest ally nation!! <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/doh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/banghead.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/banghead.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/doh.gif" alt="" />

actually, Israel is our strongest ally <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />


JYD #59 1LT Clark Tucker OD, Platoon LDR US Army
Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression [Re: reconseed] #269838 03/16/09 03:07 PM
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actually, Israel is our strongest ally <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

then we should have veto'd the cease fire.

actually, ally or not, it should have been veto'd. F'n press shoulda had more coverage of the israeli schools being bombed for the past decade, but instead that's overlooked, so none of the sheep are screaming that hamas must be stopped. all idiots.

i don't care who wins that war. just voicing the truth: the right to self defense is inalienable.


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Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression? [Re: reconseed] #269839 03/16/09 03:08 PM
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Not just how he treated the GB PM but did you see the embarrassing gift exchange? Check it out here: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,507965,00.html

And, I don't think Israel is getting treated any better - We are paying to rebuild Palestine and befriending Hamas. I can't imagine Israel is liking that too much.

Oh well...


KS JYD #93 "Life's too short..."
Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression? [Re: KnotSlip] #269840 03/16/09 03:14 PM
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Maybe Prezbo's Kenyan heritage makes him not like Great Britain. It was a surprising way to treat an ally. An ally that once captured Washington DC and burned the White House. Allies come and go, don't they?


Horned, dangerous, and off my medication.
Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression [Re: Horn Dog] #269841 03/16/09 03:23 PM
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we were never supposed to have allies to begin with.


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Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression [Re: Magnum22] #269842 03/16/09 03:33 PM
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we were never supposed to have allies to begin with.

If we hadn't had France we would have lost the revolution.


Horned, dangerous, and off my medication.
Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression? [Re: Private Klink] #269843 03/16/09 03:54 PM
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Definitely a depression! After all, I had to pass on the HG-55! <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/doh.gif" alt="" />

yeah,tell me about it.i dont know the exact difference between a recession and depression fiscally speaking but i know what a depression is when i'm living it.

i couldnt even think about grabbing the HG-55 even if i did like it and i couldnt get the muk either and probably wont be able to get anything busse kin for a long time.actually i've sold 50% of my knives in the last month or so.

i got what i call a 50% or "half lay-off" recently where i went from full-time to part time and its looking permanent.honestly i'm scared crap less.[censored] near hopeless.as long as i can scrape enough together foe my tequila i can get out of bed every day but thats only after laying there forever staring at the ceiling first for an hour or two.

i know i'm junior in age to many here but i dont like the idea of going to school at 29 and switching careers.

knives where a luxury for me but thats in the past.i doubt i'll be going to BLADE this year either.

boo-hoo,i'll shut up now.


Northern-1...aka Bad2TheBone...aka NorthernMarsh 1st member of Scrapyard hatchet/hawk club
Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression? [Re: northern1] #269844 03/16/09 04:05 PM
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Things are definitely tighter for me, but it is more the increase in prices than anything else, since I am living on a pension. Your situation sounds recession related. Lets hope things turn around soon.


Horned, dangerous, and off my medication.
Re: OT: Who thinks we are heading for a depression [Re: Horn Dog] #269845 03/16/09 04:42 PM
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we were never supposed to have allies to begin with.

If we hadn't had France we would have lost the revolution.

i was going to add that, stressing the "supposed."


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